Trump’s “biggest oil deal in history” faces hard questions as Venezuela output lags its promises
President Donald Trump hailed a 17-field Venezuelan oil deal as the biggest in history, but Reuters reporting finds only a fraction of the reserves can realistically be developed in the contract term, and the little-known firm behind it is racing to lift output from about 224,000 barrels a day.
President Donald Trump called it the biggest oil deal in history: 17 Venezuelan oilfields holding some 64 billion barrels of reserves, handed to a single company. Now, weeks into the arrangement, a closer look at the numbers behind the deal is raising difficult questions about how much of that promise can actually be delivered.
Delivering on the deal falls to North American Blue Energy Partners, known as NABEP, a little-known, privately held firm led by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. Under its agreement with Washington, the United States holds a 35 percent stake in the company’s corporate parent and the right to buy 20 percent of its output at production cost.
NABEP says it will lift oil output more than fourfold, to over one million barrels per day, from about 224,000 barrels a day in mid-October. The company says it has invested one billion dollars of its own capital since 2024 and would increase the amount it reinvests each year by as much as 50 percent to meet its targets.
But experts quoted by Reuters say only about 10 billion barrels of the headline 64 billion can realistically be developed within the 25-year term Venezuelan law allows for oil projects. Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute, gave that assessment, underlining the gap between the reserves figure and what can actually be pumped in the time available. The White House has described the arrangement as 100-year concessions, one of several gaps between the headline figures and the legal detail.
Satellite analysis from a Venezuela-focused intelligence firm in early October found no drilling infrastructure at seven of the 17 fields, Reuters reported. Junin Sur, in the Orinoco Belt where NABEP’s expansion is mainly focused, had one rig, and drilling equipment from a previous operator remained at Lake Maracaibo.
The company is, however, adding equipment. NABEP has deployed 11 workover rigs and two new drilling rigs, and Bloomberg reported last week that it operates three drilling rigs in the Junin area, with three more soon to start work, including a sixth rig that had just arrived in the country. Output has risen by about 20,000 barrels a day since August, to about 223,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day by mid-October.
Financing is the other open question. NABEP has talked of about 100 billion dollars in investment, but Rystad Energy noted in September that this figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital, and the company has not disclosed a detailed financing structure. A banker involved in energy project financing told Reuters the company will need strong partners and massive funding to develop 17 large fields at the same time.
The political backdrop is just as unsettled. Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez has defended the arrangement, while opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who returned to Venezuela this week, told reporters in Caracas on Thursday that she had not seen the NABEP contract and that it fell short on transparency.
The White House, for its part, insists the deal is already working. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said production is growing and the deal is already delivering results for the American people. When the first crude cargo under the deal reached Texas on Tuesday, Trump called the one million barrels a “gift”, although NABEP first said the oil was delivered under Washington’s right to buy output at cost and later said it gave the shipment at no cost to the US taxpayer.
The deal is also expected to face scrutiny in Washington. It could come under examination by the US Congress if Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the November 3 midterm elections, Bloomberg has reported, and questions about Betancourt’s past — he was until recently a target of US money-laundering investigations involving funds embezzled from state oil company PDVSA — are likely to follow the project.
What happens next will be measured in rigs, barrels and dollars rather than announcements. If NABEP’s rig count keeps climbing and output moves steadily towards its targets, the administration’s claim of a transforming deal will gain weight. If output stalls, or financing stays vague, the gap between the “biggest deal in history” billing and the reality on the ground will become the story — and a test of how far a single private firm can carry one of the most ambitious energy bets ever attempted.
